прогнозы/новости DJIA, S&P. Часть 13

Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 1:38
Indices Value Change % Change
NYSE Composite 8,475.07 +74.86 0.89 %
NYSE Energy 15,350.06 -236.27 -1.52 %
NYSE Financial 6,156.04 +155.31 2.59 %
NYSE Health Care 6,407.00 +162.62 2.60 %
NYSE International 100 6,459.33 +27.29 0.42 %
NYSE TMT 5,942.09 +26.21 0.44 %
NYSE US 100 6,017.08 +66.33 1.12 %
NYSE World Leaders 6,313.17 +49.72 0.79 %
NYSE Arca Tech 100 868.18 +11.73 1.37 %


Антон Гребенников 9 июл 2008 в 1:40
пока что всё по плану))


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 14:00
cnbc.com
The Market Now: A 'Violent' Quest For Bottom

For investors who like action, this summer's stock market will pack as much as any Will Smith movie while it looks for a turning point.

Unpredictable days like Monday, when the indexes moved from positive to negative at will and with little notice, are likely to become the norm as Wall Street searches for a market bottom and a recovery that could be months down the road.

"We're getting news every 5 or 10 minutes that seems to change the psychological positions of the traders. That's what's really making this market turn," says Michael Kresh, president of M.D. Kresh Financial Advisors in Islandia, N.Y. "Frightened money is jumping all over the place, and as long as that happens we're going to get these whipsaw days."

Market watchers have been probing for signs of a bottom since the market's rally off its March lows fizzled. But without a significant increase in volatility, a capitulation can't happen where the market becomes hugely oversold, forms a bottom and then heads upwards.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index spiked as much as 8 percent Monday before settling to about half that. Though wild swings in trading such as what happened Monday often accompany bottoms, the Vix remains well off the mid-30s range that would indicate a high level of fear. The index dipped Tuesday even as stocks continue to swing back and forth.

That leaves most analysts unconvinced that a capitulation point has hit, though there is sentiment that a bear market rally is on the near horizon.

"I think you would have had it yesterday if the Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac news hadn't come out," says Dave Rovelli, managing director of US equities for Boston-based Canaccord Adams. "You're due for a very violent short-term bounce."

The market had been largely holding its own Monday until Lehman Brothers questioned the capital strength of government-sponsored mortgage lenders Fannie Mae FANNIE MAEFNM and Freddie Mac FREDDIE MACFRE
13.The two companies plunged more than 15 percent each on the news, but leveled Tuesday on assurances that they are adequately capitalized and an underlying sentiment that the government wouldn't let the two largest mortgage providers collapse.

Financials are considered the biggest weight on the indexes, particularly the Standard & Poor's 500, and the market is unlikely to form a bottom and rebound until the bad news washes out regarding bank losses.

"Until the financials stop going down you're not going to have a significant rally in the S&P. They don't have to go up, they just have to stop going down," Rovelli says.

Earnings season, which kicks off today but moves into high gear next week with some of the major Dow components reporting, could hold the key to a market resurgence.

"The market's all about expectations," Bernie McSherry, of Cuttone and Co., said on CNBC. "If the earnings come in and surprise to the upside we may get a rally like we did a quarter ago."

More Room to Fall?

Kresh will be watching bank earnings closely, especially those with high exposure to subprime mortgage problems. Should banks start to level out, he sees a chance for investors to get in.


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 14:00
"You saw what happened yesterday--the market almost completely tanked. It all relates to what is now more than a year-old problem, and that is what is the underlying value of the subprime mortgage market," Kresh says. "As long as that fear is there, there is enormous opportunity. We have to be near a bottom because I can't personally believe those assets that have been written down to zero are worth zero."

Larry Edelson, financial analyst at Money and Markets online investing newsletter, says stocks still have room to fall and need more fear in the market before a bottom comes. He sees the Dow dropping to as low as 9,200 before a turnaround starts to take hold.

"Somewhere around there I think we'll see capitulation and maybe a bottom, but we'll have to wait and see," Edelson says. "It won't be a straight-down affair. There will be a lot of fake-out moves and a lot of volatility. My guess is that it's probably going to be election-related."

Kresh also sees heavy volatility ahead--the kind the market needs--but believes a bottom could be closer.

"We still have reaction to good news and bad news that's very, very violent," he says. "What we'll need to see to know if we've really turned the corner is the market will look at mildly bad news and shrug it off and look at mildly good news and take it as a very strong indication that we're going up."

In the meantime, Edelson advises investors to be cautious. He advocates plays in natural resources as well as good dividend-paying stocks in Asia, which US investors can play through the Asia Pacific Fund "There's a lot of uncertainty out there, which causes volatility," he says. "Certainly the economic news is not good good, and a lot of people are very, very nervous, and rightfully so."


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 15:07
Фьюч на Доу залез под 100 MA, фьюч на Сиплого пытается закрепиться над 100-ой с переменным успехом.


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 18:34
Всё, сиплый закрепился, главное, чтоб не соскочил.


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 21:55
Merrill to base asset sales on second-quarter loss

By Dan Wilchins

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co will determine how much of its stakes in BlackRock Inc and Bloomberg LP to sell based on the size of its second-quarter loss, a person briefed on the matter said on Wednesday.

If analysts' current estimates of up to $6 billion of write-downs are accurate, Merrill could need to raise roughly $5 billion of capital, the person said.

The company could reach that level by selling the 20 percent stake in Bloomberg, which Merrill Chief Executive John Thain said last month could be worth $5 billion to $6 billion.

Or some portion of the 49.8 percent stake in BlackRock, the largest publicly traded U.S. asset management company, could be sold, the source said. The BlackRock stake is worth about $10 billion, based on current share prices.

A sale of a portion of both stakes is also conceivable, he added.

Determining exactly how much capital Merrill would try to raise is difficult, because companies often seek more funds than they need.

A Merrill Lynch spokeswoman declined to comment, citing a quiet period. The company reports earnings next week.

Merrill Lynch has recorded more than $30 billion of write-downs since the third quarter of last year. Analysts say the third-largest U.S. broker-dealer suffered in the second quarter as bond insurers lost their top ratings and the structured credit market weakened.

Thain hinted last month that he would rather sell the Bloomberg stake than the interest in BlackRock, which he called a strategically important asset. "Bloomberg is just a very good investment," he said.

Merrill Lynch sold its investment management business to BlackRock in 2006 in exchange for shares in the asset manager, whose funds it distributes. The company plans to keep its strategic relationship with BlackRock even if it sells part of its stake, a person close to Merrill said last week.

Asset sales make more sense for Merrill Lynch because issuing equity would be too expensive, analysts said. When the company raised more than $12 billion in December and January, it agreed to compensate those investors for future share issuances at too low a price.

If Merrill issued more than $1 billion of shares now, it would have to pay the December and January investors about $4 billion in cash or stock.

Bloomberg competes with Thomson Reuters in the market for financial news and data.

(Editing by Derek Caney and Lisa Von Ahn)


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 22:02
Morgan Stanley cuts targets on retailers

(Reuters) - Retailers may have a challenging 2009 as sales at its domestic stores continue to fall and in the absence of a stimulus like this year's tax rebates, analysts at Morgan Stanley said, as they lowered their price targets and 2009 earnings estimates across the sector.

Morgan Stanley cut its 2009 earnings-per-share estimates by 3 percent, on average, and price targets by 8 percent.

Decline in home values, rising unemployment, higher food and fuel costs, and a reduction in the level of construction spending - all point toward continued pressure on retailers through the end of 2008, Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients.

"While we believe that around $15 billion of stimulus checks will make it into retail sales and may provide a modest boost to retailer earnings, the checks are insufficient to offset macro headwinds into 2009," Morgan Stanley said.

The stimulus will provide some relief in the second and third quarters, but will not follow through to 2009, it added.

The investment bank cut its 2009 earnings-per-share growth forecast to 12 percent from 16 percent for hardline and softline retailers on continued macroeconomic weakness, inflationary pressures and weak retail sales.

Morgan Stanley said its multivariate model, which predicts monthly retail sales in six months time, points toward a 0.8 percent growth in retail sales in November, a steep decrease from the 1.9 percent growth in May.

The investment bank, which remained "cautious" on softlines and hardlines, said it favored discounters, restaurants, and food and drug sectors across retail. Wal-Mart Stores Inc is its favorite stock this year.

(Reporting by Neha Singh in Bangalore; Editing by Himani Sarkar)


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 22:09
новости на блумберге и рейтерс сплошь негативные пошли.


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 22:48
100 ма пробита вниз, плоховато


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 23:00
BBC

Trichet voices inflation concerns

The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) has said eurozone inflation is at a "worrying" level and could stay high in the months ahead.

Jean-Claude Trichet told the European Parliament that higher commodity prices had pushed inflation to 4% this year.

That rate is more than double the ECB's target and lead the bank increasing its key interest rate to 4.25% last week.

Mr Trichet's warning came as economic growth in the eurozone region was revised down in first quarter of 2008.

"Inflation arrived at a worrying level of 4% in mid-2008," said Mr Trichet.

"The annual inflation rate is likely to remain well above the level consistent with price stability for some time, moderating only gradually in 2009."

Wage worries

Mr Trichet also warned about the dangers of linking wage increases to inflation because he is concerned that rising pay could further fuel consumer prices.

Last Thursday, the ECB increased the cost of borrowing to tame inflation in spite of evidence pointing to slowing economies in the 15 countries that use the euro.

Economists at the European statistics office Eurostat said the region's economic growth was weaker than it previously thought in the first quarter of 2008.

Gross domestic product rose just 0.7% in the quarter, Eurostat had previously estimated growth of of 0.8%.

That takes the annual rate of growth down to to 2.1%, compared with an earlier forecast of 2.2%.


Дмитрий Марков 9 июл 2008 в 23:02
U.S. Stocks Fall as Analysts Say Slowdown Hurting Cisco, Intel (bloomberg)


Виталий *the pleasure is mine babe* Фокин 10 июл 2008 в 20:56
"Новости" - то из-за чего инвесторы/трейдеры теряют деньги...
..забудьте о них.


Дмитрий Марков 11 июл 2008 в 8:42
Всё зависит от 2-х факторов:
1) скорости их поступления до инвестора относительо момента наступления события;
2) достоверности и непредвзятой, объективной трактовки новостей.


Дмитрий Марков 11 июл 2008 в 15:17
Краткосрочно ясно, что ничего не ясно, всё зависит от статистики с 14.00 и до вечера, отчёта GE


Дмитрий Марков 11 июл 2008 в 18:32
ДЕФИЦИТ ТОРГОВОГО БАЛАНСА США СНИЗИЛСЯ В МАЕ ДО $59,8 МЛРД, ОЖИДАЛОСЬ УВЕЛИЧЕНИЕ ДО $62,5 МЛРД


Виталий *the pleasure is mine babe* Фокин 11 июл 2008 в 18:38
дешевый доллар дает о себе знать)


Виталий *the pleasure is mine babe* Фокин 11 июл 2008 в 18:40
фъючерсы убиты кстати....


Дмитрий Марков 11 июл 2008 в 20:02
ИНДЕКС ДОВЕРИЯ ПОТРЕБИТЕЛЕЙ США В ИЮЛЕ ВЫРОС ДО 56,6, АНАЛИТИКИ ОЖИДАЛИ СНИЖЕНИЯ ДО 55,5 ПУНКТА


Виталий *the pleasure is mine babe* Фокин 11 июл 2008 в 20:06
а что такое индекс доверия потребителей?